The World Platinum Investment Council - WPIC® - today publishes its Platinum Quarterly for the fourth quarter of 2025 and full year 2025, with a revised forecast for 2026.
Stronger-than-expected Q4 investment demand – fuelled in-part by a rally in platinum prices – saw the platinum market deficit for full year 2025 increase to 1,082 koz. This is the deepest shortfall in the Platinum Quarterly data series going back to 2014. In full year 2025, total demand reached its highest level for nine years, up 1% (+73 koz) year-on-year to 8,297 koz, led by very strong investment demand and jewellery demand growth. Total supply saw a contraction of 1% to 7,215 koz.
The platinum market is expected to record its fourth consecutive annual deficit in 2026 at 240 koz, in contrast to the initial forecast for 2026 which predicted a broadly balanced market. This reflects strong investor sentiment supporting stable ETF holdings as opposed to previous expectations of profit taking. Total demand in 2026 is anticipated to be 8% (-678 koz) lower year- on-year at 7,619 koz. Total supply is projected to increase 2% year-on-year to 7,379 koz on the back of recycling supply growth alone.
In aggregate, the total market shortfall that has accumulated since 2023 is expected to approach 3 Moz by the end of 2026. By extension, already depleted above ground stocks will fall further to a projected 2,613 koz, providing just over four months’ worth of global demand cover.
Total supply increase supported by recycling growth as mine supply remains subdued in 2026
Full year mine supply in 2025 declined 4% (-236 koz) year-on-year to 5,551 koz. For 2026, mine supply is forecast to remain flat at 5,553 koz, with gains from South Africa and Zimbabwe offset by declines in North America and Russia.
A recovery in recycling supply began in 2025 as higher prices encouraged the flow of spent autocatalyst material and higher jewellery recycling, especially in China. Recycling supply increased 10% year-on-year (+148 koz) to 1,664 koz. Growth in recycling supply will continue in 2026 as these trends carry on, rising 10% (+163 koz) to 1,827 koz, and enabling the 2% growth in total supply that is anticipated.
Reduced automotive demand softened by hybridisation trends
In 2025, lower automotive demand was, to an extent, mitigated by increases in both light-duty hybrid vehicle production and heavy-duty vehicle production, which rose year-on-year by 17% and 4%, respectively. As a result, automotive demand fell by just 72 koz (-2%) year-on-year to 3,035 koz due to a reduction in overall catalysed vehicle production.
The 2026 forecast is for automotive demand to contract by 3% (-92 koz) to 2,943 koz. This reflects a softening of heavy-duty demand (-1%) and lower ICE light-duty vehicle production (- 7%) outweighing a 12% increase in hybrid vehicle production and 3% growth in the non-road segment.
Higher precious metals prices to weigh on jewellery demand in 2026
In 2025, jewellery demand rose 9% (+182 koz) year-on-year to 2,190 koz, the highest level since 2018, supported by platinum’s price discount to gold.
Jewellery demand is forecast to fall 12% year-on-year in 2026 (-263 koz) to 1,927 koz, broadly in line with the five-year average, as higher prices weigh on demand. The biggest swing is expected in China, where fabrication is forecast to reduce by 36% year-on-year to 371 koz after an exceptionally strong performance in 2025.
Elsewhere, the regional picture is nuanced. In North America, higher absolute platinum prices will affect volumes, although expenditure on platinum jewellery is projected to grow strongly; demand is forecast to decline by 13%. Similarly, demand in Japan is expected to contract, by 5%. In Europe, record growth in recent years is forecast to stall, with demand almost flat. In contrast, India is expected to return to growth, with fabrication increasing 7% as exports normalise and the domestic market expands.
Rebound in industrial demand
Industrial demand fell by 21% year-on-year in full year 2025 to 1,915 koz, largely due to an anticipated cyclical reduction in glass demand.
In 2026, industrial demand is projected to rebound, rising 11% (+209 koz) to 2,124 koz. The recovery will be led by the glass sector, which is forecast to grow by 92% to 340 koz, following limited capacity additions in 2025. Further support will come from a 10% increase in chemical demand and a 7% rise in hydrogen stationary applications to 633 koz and 69 koz, respectively. These gains will be partly offset by a 17% contraction in petroleum demand to 154 koz.
Total bar and coin investment demand to hit series high in 2026
In 2025 total investment demand rose by 65% (+456 koz) year-on-year to 1,157 koz. This reflected China-led strong bar and coin demand, which almost doubled year-on-year (+180 koz) to 372 koz. Platinum ETF holdings increased by 7% (+234 koz) to 3,540 koz by year end 2025. Exchange stocks, which started the year at 270 koz, saw significantly higher-than-normal net inflows of 384 koz during the course of 2025, initially due to tariff-related concerns and more recently because of uncertainty around the US government’s Section 232 Investigation.
In 2026, total investment demand is forecast to reduce by 46% to 625 koz, on the assumption that trade tensions ease and elevated exchange stocks unwind slightly, leading to a 100 koz outflow. Further, ETF holdings are forecast to hold steady, neither increasing nor decreasing. Total bar and coin investment is expected to jump by 35% (+188 koz) to 725 koz, its highest level in the Platinum Quarterly data series going back to 2014. Gains are expected across all markets amid notable interest from India, which has recently been identified as a new geographic region to monitor from a platinum investment demand perspective.