Five-year supply/demand outlook; structurally resilient within a cloud of negative sentiment

A challenge in producing a longer-term supply/demand outlook is marrying up the underlying fundamentals with current external market dynamics. It is difficult to fully capture the impact of the Iran war given the potential for second order impacts.

Our base case is not for a protracted conflict, however, to evaluate a potential “worst-case” for platinum, we have assessed platinum’s performance through the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. Platinum demand declined 12% during the GFC, but recovered within a year, the post-COVID recovery took three-years due to the compounding chip supply shortage.

The takeaway is that the Iran war is unlikely to structurally change platinum markets. Accordingly, we have resisted sweeping changes to our forecasts and expect platinum market deficits to average 331 koz from 2026f to 2030f, with palladium market deficits expected to transition to surpluses from 2027f.

Figure 1. Platinum and palladium market balances 2023 to 2030f