London Platinum Week Review: Broad confidence on the underlying markets albeit with some Iran war trepidation

Last week, the PGM industry gathered for London Platinum Week where the primary themes included price resilience during external market uncertainty, recycling supply growth, increasing end uses in datacentres, and the need for more coordinated market development efforts. Against this backdrop, updated supply demand projections were released by several industry participants including the WPIC. Aggregating the outlooks, the platinum market is forecast to remain in deficit during 2026f, equivalent to 4% of average demand projections.

During platinum week, Johnson Matthey (JM), SFA (Oxford), BASF and WPIC (independently produced by Metals Focus) each released updated platinum supply demand estimates for 2025 and 2026f (Fig. 1). Supply is expected to be, on average across the forecasts, stable during 2026f (Fig. 2) as recycling growth offsets erosion across mining. Mine supply expectations were largely consistent, while recycling was topical during the week, and growth estimates across the four forecasts range from +1.7% to +13.7% YoY during 2026f. Notably, the large PGM recyclers, JM and BASF, diverge on the rate of growth in recycling volumes for 2026f. We recently highlighted that higher PGM prices are supporting recycling supply growth but that several headwinds may be capping the market’s potential output (link). Onerous working capital financing conditions and lower feed grades may be weighing on recycling supply growth and if the Iran war lingers on, slower economic growth could defer new car purchases and similarly scrappage rates. Reflecting on the variability of recycling supply, since 2022, recycling growth has consistently underperformed initial forecasts (Fig. 3).

Figure 1. Summary platinum supply demand forecasts presented during London Platinum Week

Turning to demand, average platinum demand is forecast to decline by 7% YoY during 2026f mainly due to lower investment demand (Fig. 5). As we previously noted, the Middle East is not a large direct PGM market (link), however, the Iran war is weighing on platinum investment. Non-yielding precious metals markets have been negatively impacted by upwardly revised interest rate expectations as inflation forecasts are raised due to restricted trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Platinum ETF holdings have decreased by 331 koz or 10%, since the end of February. Elsewhere, platinum demand is declining across jewellery (-8% YoY), automotive (-4%) and industrial (-1%) markets in 2026f with the drop in jewellery demand reflecting the 97% increase in the average monthly platinum price in May 2026 versus May 2025.

With a protracted Iran war representing some demand risk, the consolidated platinum market outlooks reflect an average annual deficit of 285 koz during 2026f. While the 2026f platinum market deficit is forecast to be smaller than that reported in 2025, above ground platinum stocks (AGS) are required to meet supply shortfalls. The WPIC estimates that four consecutive years of platinum market deficits will have depleted AGS by 65% (Fig. 7). In our view, depleting AGS combined with geopolitical competition for critical minerals and investors seeking physical asset exposure remain compelling aspects of the platinum investment case.

Figure 2: Total platinum supply is expected to be, on average, stable in 2026f

Figure 3: Platinum recycling has, in recent periods, underperformed initial forecasts

Figure 4: Total platinum demand is, on average, expected to decline by 7% year-on-year in 2026f

Figure 5: A decline in platinum investment demand is the largest factor underpinning lower platinum demand in 2026f

Figure 6: Since the start of the Iran war on 28 February 2026, platinum ETF holdings have decreased by 10%

Figure 7: Four years of consecutive platinum market deficits are expected to deplete AGS by 66% from 2022 to 2026f

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