1 July 2019: Automaker strategies to reduce multi-billion Euro CO2 fines increasingly include achieving higher diesel sales: The 2009 EU legislation to reduce CO2 takes effect in 2021. From September 2019 all new diesel cars sold will be Euro 6d TEMP, or RDE, compliant and will finally be ‘clean’ (in NOx terms). This makes it easier for automakers to promote diesel sales including mild hybrid and plug-in hybrid diesel models and is positive for platinum demand.
Platinum Perspectives
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![Industrial demand has grown at twice the rate of global growth in the last 5 years and is now the largest portion of net platinum demand](/img/perspectives/archive/perspectives_jun_19.jpg?v1)
1 June 2019: Industrial demand has grown at twice the rate of global growth in the last 5 years and is now the largest portion of net platinum demand: This recent growth, above its long run correlation with global GDP, has partly offset easing Chinese jewellery and European autocatalyst demand. Industrial demand growth is driven by global economic growth and advances in technology but can exhibit short term changes unrelated to macro trends. Steady industrial demand growth, now and in future, underpins platinum.
![Bar and coin and ETF demand are important to the platinum investment case](/img/perspectives/archive/perspectives_apr_19.jpg?v1)
1 April 2019: Bar and coin and ETF demand are important to the platinum investment case: Given the low current platinum price and the spectacular 2019 year-to-date growth in ETF holdings, it is worth looking at the relative roles of owned and exchanged traded investment in physical platinum.
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1 March 2019: The overall PGM picture looks strong, despite the platinum surplus: Palladium’s 2019 market deficit is estimated to approach 1 moz, assuming zero investment demand. This more than exceeds the combined surpluses estimated for platinum and rhodium. As the metals are to a significant extent fungible, a large market imbalance in one metal should result in a rebalancing among the PGMs, as we discuss in this report.
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1 February 2019: Platinum provides some diversification benefit for portfolios: Recent market volatility reminds us of the importance of portfolio diversification. Adding a risky asset to an existing portfolio reduces overall portfolio volatility when the new asset has a correlation <1.0 with the existing portfolio. Our note explores platinum’s diversification dynamics and qualities.
![Sustained palladium futures curve backwardation has ramifications for platinum](/img/perspectives/archive/perspectives_jan_19.jpg?v1)
1 January 2019: Sustained palladium futures curve backwardation has ramifications for platinum: When futures curves change shape, they can impart valuable market information. The palladium futures curve has been in backwardation for over a year, a sign of a shortage in the metal. This is another indicator arguing for substitution of palladium by platinum in automotive applications, in our view.
![FCVs represent material long-term platinum demand](/img/perspectives/archive/perspectives_dec_18.jpg?v1)
1 December 2018: FCVs represent material long-term platinum demand: We investigate the potential impact of fuel cell electric vehicles on platinum demand, building a baseline forecast anchored on announced fuel cell vehicle and infrastructure plans in Japan, China, California and elsewhere. We find it generates material demand in the coming years.
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1 November 2018: Upcoming China emissions regulations look likely to have a meaningful impact on PGMs demand: We highlight the likely impact of the upcoming China 6 emissions standards on platinum and platinum group metals (PGM) demand. The combination of tightening emissions standards and continued auto production growth means that China’s appetite for these metals has significant room to grow.
![The palladium premium is a potential platinum opportunity](/img/perspectives/archive/perspectives_oct_18.jpg?v1)
1 October 2018: The palladium premium is a potential platinum opportunity: We highlight the sustained palladium price premium to platinum and the potential effect on platinum demand. Historical substitution trends among platinum, palladium and rhodium in automotive catalysts mean that a sustained significant price premium of palladium over platinum looks unlikely.
![ETFs are an essential component of platinum demand](/img/perspectives/archive/perspectives_sep_18_etfs.jpg?v1)
15 September 2018: ETFs are an essential component of platinum demand: We highlight that Platinum ETFs, being physically backed, form an essential part of the annual platinum demand as vaulted allocated bars backing them are purchased in the spot market.